A key challenge in shifting towards a more sustainable future is that we are all embedded in the organizations and life forms—broadly speaking, systems—in which we participate.

This means, practically, that none of us wakes up each morning thinking, “Today, I want to pollute more or contribute to the biodiversity crisis.” However, the fact that we continue in this way, both on an individual and collective level, illustrates what management thinker Peter Senge calls the “immune system of systems”. We remain attached to our established routines, and attempts to change often lead us back to familiar habits

From foresight theory, we know that if we want to change our habits, we must meet people and organizations ‘where they are.’ A useful framework for doing this and simultaneously setting a new direction that could lead to systemic change is the metaphor of The Three Horizons of Transformation, introduced originally by innovation and system strategist, Bill Sharpe.

• Horizon One represents the status quo: we continue as we are, keeping the lights on. In this horizon, we focus on maintaining and managing existing systems.
• Horizon Two marks the beginning of adjustment. Here, we start making small but crucial changes within the realm of what’s possible—what innovation theory calls incremental innovation aimed at shifting existing systems and steering us toward a new direction.
• Horizon Three sets our sights at least 20 years into the future—where we aim to be. The key point about these three horizons is that we must help each other begin with Horizon Three and then work backward to connect that vision to present-day decisions.

Regarding the challenges we face now, a crucial point is that Horizon One is no longer an option! The status quo is insufficient and clearly unsustainable. We must all transition to Horizon Two in order to reach Horizon Three.

Understanding the Model. This model can be understood and applied from two perspectives and starting points. The first perspective is when you recognize that the long-term future will be radically different from the near future, and you want to start taking that into account in your daily work already now (ensuring relevance in the future). The second perspective is understanding that the radically different world we dream of in the long term will not happen unless we work within the reality we are in now and strategically lay tracks that point toward the desired future (ensuring a relevant future).

Personally, I have used the model from the latter perspective to figure out how to live with the fact that my work today cannot yet meet the sustainability ambitions I have for the future.

The model is based on the idea that short-term, medium-term, and long-term trends unfold simultaneously in the world, though with different weights at different times. By identifying or deciding which trends or developments are desired in these tracks, one can begin planning activities in the present and near future based on what one believes or hopes for in the future. 

How to Use the Model

1. Define your horizons
   When starting with the model, it is important to clarify the purpose of using it. If your goal is to create a strategy for yourself, your organization, or a project to be relevant in the future, you should define the three horizons based on your best guess of what the future will look like in your field:

1. • What are the long-term trends for the industry or area you’re working in?
   • What does the present look like, and what are the medium-term trends that connect the current situation to the long-term trends?

If your goal is to create a relevant future with your project, organization, or work, you should identify the long-term change you are seeking to bring about in the world:

1. • What is the current status?
   • What are the medium-term trends that could transition the current situation to the long-term goal?

Write your answers in boxes 1, 2, and 3 on the far left of the tool.

2. Set a timeframe
   The next step is to set a timeframe for your horizons, if not already provided. Is the long-term 5, 10, or 50 years away? This depends on your scope and what you’re working with. Spend some time setting a realistic but ambitious timeframe, as it could become defining for what follows.
3. What happens in the three phases?
   Consider what reality looks like in each of the three phases. What tactical considerations (principles, actions) are needed in the different phases to remain relevant? And if your goal is to create change, what are the tactical considerations that create phases 1, 2, and 3? Also, write down what specifically you need to do to ensure the right balance between the three trends in each phase.
4. Share your three horizons
   Tell others about your three horizons. Ask them to qualify by:
   1. Whether they see the same trends/opportunities (the horizons) as you do

1. 1. If the timeline is correct, or should it be longer or shorter?
   2. Whether they agree with your tactical considerations for each of the three phases in how such futures should be tackled

The model offers a quick way to outline a strategy, either alone or with others. It provides an overview that makes it easy to gather quick feedback in a collaborative and engaging way.