Strategic foresight do not need to be as difficult as it sounds. Using a simple tool or model as this one, will get you far in starting a conversations and reflections about the future. Combining this tool with other worldmaking tools, such as ‘The Star of the Universes’ can give you a solid foundation for visionary strategizing and planning.

This model/tool can be understood and used from two different perspectives and starting points. The first one is when you know that the long-term future will look radically different from the near future, and you want to start taking that into account in our daily work already now (Ensuring relevance in the future). The other perspective is recognizing that the radically different world we dream of in the long run will not happen if we do not work in the reality we are in now and strategically lay tracks that point towards the desired future (Ensuring a relevant future).

Personally, I have used the model from the latter perspective to figure out how to live with the fact that my work today cannot live up to the sustainability ambitions I have for the future.

Understanding the model

The model is based on the idea that both short-term, medium-term, and long-term trends unfold in the world at the same time, althought with different weights at different times. By identifying or deciding which trends or developments one desires on these tracks, one can begin to plan activities in the present and near future based on what one believes in or hope for in the future.

Horizon 1, representing things as they are right now, naturally occupies the most space at any given present, but it must not dominate everything. There should also be room for the other two horizons. In your strategic planning, ensure that the weight of each horizon over time will change, so that the medium-term and long-term focus receive more space than the short-term horizons. The three horizons thus create three time phases, where each of the three horizons is prominent.

How do you use the model

Define your horizons
When you start working with the model, it is important to clarify the purpose of using itl. If your purpose is to create a strategy for you/a organization/a project to be relevant in the future, you should define the three horizons based on your best guess of what the future looks like within the field you are working in: What are the long-term trends for the industry or area you are working in? What does it look like right now, and what are the medium-term trends that connect the current situation with the long-term trends?
If your purpose is to create a relevant future with your project/organization or your work, you should figure out what long-term change you are seeking to make in the world: What is the current status? And what are the medium-term trends that could be the transition from the current situation to the long-term goal?
Write your answers in boxes 1, 2, 3 on the far left of the tool.

Set a timeframe
The next thing you need to do, if it is not already given, is to set a timeframe for your horizons. Is the long-term 5, 10, or 50 years? It depends on your scope and what you are working with. But spend some time setting a realistic but ambitious timeframe, as it can end up being defining for what follows.

What happens in the three phases?
Consider how reality looks in each of the three phases. What tactical considerations (principles, actions) do you need to make in the different phases to be relevant? And if your goal is to create the change, what are your tactical considerations that create phases 1, 2, and 3? Also, write down what specifically you need to do to ensure the right balance between the three trends in a given phase. Tell others about your three horizons Ask them to qualify either by 1) whether they are seeing the same trends/opportunities as you do (the horizons), 2) Is the timeline correct, or should it be longer or shorter? and 3) do they agree with your tactical considerations for each of the three phases in how such futures should be tackled?

The model gives you a quick way to outline a strategy either alone or with others. It creates an overview that makes it easy to gather quick feedback from others in a playful and exciting way.